Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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The Bulls’ Own February 5th

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I've spent a huge amount of time over the past week or so discussing, thinking about, and agonizing over the whole "February 5th" topic (e.g. "why didn't I cover?") I've learned a tremendous amount from discussions with Slopers, as well as email exchanges, and I'm confident I'm much, much less likely to go through something like that in the future.

In retrospect, so many of these graphs I'm newly aware of were screaming "get out!!!" on that fateful day. In retrospect, it seems so obvious (doesn't it always?)

I would submit to you that the bulls are in a similar state at this point. Many of these graphs are at extremes, and while people seem to have already thrown the bears a funeral until 2012 (which seems to be the year constantly cited as the only real opportunity for a bear market to occur again), I would suggest the bulls' certitude of unending gains may be cause for regret a month from now.


I will mention that I have tempered my bearishness in two major ways: (1) taking on more bullish positions than I believe I've had in a very long time, which should be obvious given the plethora of long ideas lately; (2) keeping the size of my bearish bets far more modest than before.

Should things ever kick in again to the downside for a meaningful amount of time, I shall be watching graphs like the one above (and a series of others I have bookmarked) for clearer signals about trend changes. I appreciate everyone's help in helping me learn about these helpful charts.