Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Third Revelation Continuation

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Below is a closer look at what I think is next. It is consistent with what I've been saying recently; it's also consistent with my Big Picture, with my step-by-step count of the 37-42 analog, and with classic technical analysis.

If things actually pan out close to this, I will obviously be thrilled, since I'm using this as my roadmap. Because of the valuable nature of this insight, I am only sharing it with dues-paying Premium Slopers, who are equipped with a mouse-based personal computer, a post-Compuserve era browser, and the Internetz. Here it is:

0526-wag3

QQQQ Correlation – Today’s Market vs 2007 (by Osbourne Cox)

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So I was watching the Paul Tudor Jones video about how he predicted the
1987 crash by correlating current price movements with the price action
from the 1920s.  The rationale is straight out of Elliot Wave theory: 
Markets are driven by psychology and people’s reactions to greed and
fear form the same patterns that can and will repeat.

And it made me think about this graph that I came up with a few
weeks ago:

QQQQ_Drop

So I went back and tried
comparing the daily price movements in 2007/2008 and today.  The
similarities in price action are striking and the results appear to be a
very compelling roadmap for the next few weeks.

QQQQ 2007:

2007_QQQQ

Today's Market:

2010_QQQQ_Grey

Each of the blue or
pink squares corresponds to a day in the May 2010 market, although a few
of the squares represent multiple 2010 days.  Follow the new highs and
lows and failed attempts and everything lines up shockingly well.  I
might be guilty of a bit of curve fitting but the main parameters (new
highs and
lows) all match up.

The only divergences that I see that #10 and
#11 broke #9’s high in 2010 while they failed to do so in 2007/2008.  In
addition, #14 became a catch all for over 20 days in 2007 and 5 days in
2010.  I suppose one can chalk it up to the after affects of the flash
crash.  But the end result is the same:  The lows from bar #9 are taken
out.  Because of the result, I felt that it was appropriate to combine
all of this market action into 1 square.

The first takeaway is that the market will not revisit yesterday’s
lows.  If the pattern holds, we are heading higher and it sure looks
like the right shoulder is going to be formed.  Here is the big picture:

QQQQ_Big_Picture

The most
important takeaway from the analysis is that this market is moving much,
much faster than it did in 2007/2008.  We could be seeing a market
crash in the next few weeks.  What took months back in 2010 will take
weeks and what took weeks will take days.  And likewise, I would expect the drop to be that much faster as well.

UPDATE: Given the market action in the last hour, it looks like I grouped too many bars in the most recent box.  It looks like box #16 should only include the 2 green bars.  Today would be box #17 and represent the big red bar.