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Here is an observation I made last night using the $INDU …
Considering this $INDU chart, the key here for bulls is valid follow through. BTW, I have not even looked at the markets yet today, but a quick glance tells me that the NASDAQ is showing relative weakness to the other major indexes (e.g., yesterday it briefly diverged from this recent trend).
Doing some fib extrapolation (green fibs), i am thinking the top of this rally will be around 1099 (~1003 SPX) based on how well that jives with current price action, around July 19th using fib time series as well (which also predict a ST high tomorrow (1079) and a ST bottom (1067) on the 13th.
This is mostly a goof but for the record using the same methods i did manage to predict a low of 996 which is about as good as you're going to get from the likes of me.
For once, I was able to weed out a large number of setups from my list, due largely to the strength in the markets from the past two days. As a result, my short watch-list is just a shade under 100. But about 50 less from the watch-list I posted last time.
Here are the requirements for inclusion on this list:
1) Price and volume pattern is intriguing
2) Stock has been heavily sold-off in the recent days or weeks, but still remains on the list for a possible short off of a weak rally
3) Stock is one of intrigue to me, such as Goldman Sachs (GS), so I keep it around in the case that there is a setup that is too good to pass up.
Most of them right now fall under #2 as the market in recent weeks has taken a pummeling. The stop-losses for ALL of the stocks have been updated. Don't be a stranger if you have any questions. New additions to the list are highlighted in yellow.
My overall work on the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS) indicates that the upmove from the Jun 21 low at 24.07 to the Jul 6 high at 32.20 completed the initial upleg of a larger, intermediate-term advance. If accurate this means that from in and around the 27.50/00 area, the SRS will pivot to the upside into a new upleg that projects into the 34.50-35.00 target zone. At this juncture, only continued weakness that violates 26.00 will invalidate the timing of the anticipated next advance.
This is one of those "Hmmm, that's kind of interesting" observations. I was playing around with the chart of British Petroleum, placing a horizontal line at the top of its gap range, and it turns out that every one of these gaps almost exactly match the Fibonacci retracement levels (defined by BP's lifetime price extremes of 1/27/2003 and 11/7/2007).