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I revisited my 1937-1942 analog this afternoon. I've hand-marked up the charts, but I didn't feel like scanning them in, because the last 30 minutes of the day's trading left me ticked-off and, thanks to our dear friends as GS, disillusioned just like I was prior to mid-April.
So instead of sharing every little wiggle with you, I'll simply point out approximately where we are in the analog; here is the 1937-1939 chunk, with our "target" circled:
We could still climb higher from here; anywhere in that cyan-tinted area would be acceptable. If and when we do flip down, assuming the analog holds (as it has for nearly two years now), we'll fall to somewhere in that magenta range. The range is huge, I realize, but my guess is 9000 on the Dow, plus or minus a hundred points or so.
I'm really bummed that a 20-point slaughter of GOOG isn't doing a thing for the equity bear after hours. It'll be good to get yet another OPEX out of the way. Good night.
My greatest fear about the GS settlement is simple – – until mid-April, the market was absolutely psychotic. Technical analysis has ceased to function. But when the Feds went after GS, charts immediately started working again. Trading made sense. Charts were usable. It was glorious.
Now that the GS is off the hook, will they once again warp the markets to their own devices? I put nothing past them. There is nothing GS won't do to make a buck. Nothing.
(1) "Change We Can Believe In" has proved itself to be an utter wheelbarrow full of crap. It's the same old story. The same countries, the same companies, and the same chosen people are going to get all the protection they demand. The fine should have been ten times this amount. Obama sold out. Again.
(2) The stock is down over $23 after-hours as I am typing this. Will it stick tomorrow? Who knows. But the NQ is, incredibly, UP! It seems true that the bears are simply never going to get a break.
(3) This is good news. I hope it stays plugged. BP has gone up nearly 50% is just two weeks!
Down to 80 stocks that I am following on my short watch-list, which is quite a bit smaller then in week's past. Oh….and I'd like to dedicate this list to all the "Huns" out there.
Here are the requirements for inclusion on this list:
1) Price and volume pattern is intriguing
2) Stock has been heavily sold-off in the recent days or weeks, but still remains on the list for a possible short off of a weak rally
3) Stock is one of intrigue to me, such as Goldman Sachs (GS), so I keep it around in the case that there is a setup that is too good to pass up.
Most of them right now fall under #1 as many of the stocks have very favorable short setups currently. The stop-losses for ALL of the stocks have been updated. Don't be a stranger if you have any questions. New additions to the list are highlighted in yellow.
Yes, it's like slowing down to gawk at a car wreck on the side of the road, but I confess to being appalled and fascinated by the new-rant-every-day coming out of Mel Gibson land. Someone cleverly has mashed some of his rant with the adorable Miss Piggy. Be warned, the audio is extremely NSFW.
Here, in my opinion, is the good news for the bears, represented by the two charts below:
+ The Euro almost perfectly reached my target of 1.3; it seems to be weakening already, and its huge strength this morning did nothing for equities; + A consistent series of lower highs; + And lower lows; + This week’s highs didn’t violated the 1102.75 level I pointed out earlier this week; + Not shown on any of these graphs is the fact that companies have been producing record, blow-away, oh-my-God earnings (like AA, presently down 2.29%, and INTC, down 0.77%), and even though people bid up the stock after hours, the pop fades and all those greedy bulls wind up with losses.
As I mentioned yesterday, the past week has really stunk for me, but today is going great, and I’m thinking this rally from hell might have exhausted itself yesterday. I sure hope so. GOOG’s earnings, announced about three milliseconds after the close today, will be another interesting item to watch.