Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on Gold Miners ETF (Mike Paulenoff)

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Just in case you want to see a real live example of channel analysis, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is a textbook case. The enclosed 3-month uptrend has carved out a spectacular bullish channel, which we notice rocketed through the channel resistance line yesterday morning (above 58.55) prior to reversing back beneath the upper channel line.

In classic channel behavior, the GDX reversed from above to below the channel resistance line, and then continued to decline across the entire width of the channel right into the area of the lower channel support line (55.80), where it preserved the integrity of the channel, pivoting to the upside late yesterday afternoon.

Today's rally argues strongly from a technical perspective that yesterday's downside channel traverse in and of itself represented a completed near-term correction. If that is accurate, then the GDX has just started a new upleg that projects to new highs near 60 next. Only a decline that breaks the lower channel boundary at 55.90/80 compromises the still constructive technical and chart set-up.

Originally published on

Quick Charts: CHGS, BTM, TRIT (by Leisa)

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This is as much a comment cleaner as anything else. (Though I see that Toshi put up a post just now)

CHGS is one of my obscure Chinese stocks.  I liked the bottoming formation, the fundamentals, the sector.  Volume came into it mid-September and then receded.  It blipped again, and today came in with impunity. 

Moves such as this are generally unsustainable.  I developed my playbook of these moves that centers on:

  • Protect profits by selling into strength. I sold 1/2 of my position into this surge today.
  • Maintain a position in case of a gap and go (which though unlikely, can happen)
  • Re-buy the position once it comes back in. 

Ideally, there would be a follow through to today's move.  However, I have also noticed with these thin and cheap stocks, that sometimes the blast off is merely unloading.  The subsequent news is bad, and you are reduced from happy trader to bag holder.

Here's the chart:


I also took a position n BTM today.  I thought the Volume by Price profile was constructive.


TRIT is also a stock that I like.  I have a position in it.  It, too, has recently gained nicely.  However, I maintained my position as the spike in price was not as overdone ast CHGS.  Here's a chart.


TRIT also has the added benefit of having a super-strong balance sheet (cash per share is $4.07, current ratio is north of 10, and there is no debt).  They are in the Chinese water space. 

I do not put stops on these thin issues.  It is a conscious choice.  I buy them for a very specific reason, with risk capital, and with the understanding of the volatility–volatility that often shakes you out when you least expect it.

Because I'm a far better researcher than a trader, finding names such as this suits my trader/investor DNA. Having specific rules on breakouts helps me better manage my position and my risks. 


Zero Visibility

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For pretty much this whole week, the /ES has been confined to a minuscule ten-point range. That would make sense if the jobs report – the single most important report of the entire month – were still looming, but the report is history now, and the market still cannot make up its mind.


It'll be nice when earning season really kicks in so we can briefly stop thinking about QE2 and actually think about corporate earnings, which used to be what the stock market was all about, long ago.