Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

World’s Worst Spam

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My inbox has been deluged recently with spam from – ostensibly – an organization that processes tax payments. (It seems a little odd to be sending this out around Halloween, but let's leave that aside).

Spammers, if you're going to do this, at least make a decent effort. This is completely unacceptable. I have put a rectangle around the misspelled words. Anyone who clicks on the link within such an email deserves whatever they get.


Lest We Forget

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I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, as it is an object lesson in arrogance as well as the power of contrary thinking.

In early October, 1997, Michael Dell told a large group of technology executives that Apple might as well shut down and return whatever cash is left to the shareholders. It is sort of understandable why he would say such a thing. At the time, DELL stock was basically like AAPL today – all it did was go up, week after week (indeed, it kept doing so even after this quote, peaking in March 2000).

And Apple – poor old Apple – was a $5 piece o' crap stock that seemed like it would follow the path of Silicon Graphics into oblivion. That is, a pretty interesting company at one point which become unimportant and let progress pass it by.

For a while, Dell's quote seemed to make sound sense, because the price of DELL kept climbing, and the price of AAPL fell yet another 40% in short order. But over the long haul, AAPL has done all right. Here's a graph of its percentage change in price since the aforementioned quote.


Yep, you read that right – up 5,400%.

How has DELL stock done since then? It's up since the quote was made. About 10%.

Hubris has met its reward. Many years from now – who knows – the shoe may be on the other foot, and people will marvel that AAPL could have ever been a $320 stock. But, for now……..they own the world.

SPX Support Still Holding (by Springheel Jack)

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We're definitely seeing some signs that USD may be in the process of making a significant low. I'm a little concerned about that as USD has not reached my target level yet. The initial EURUSD support trendline for this wave up has now turned into resistance and marked the reversal level on Friday:


GBPUSD broke the initial rising channel for this wave up a few days ago, and has formed a shallower rising channel. If this topping process continues then I would expect to see this turn next into a declining channel or H&S pattern. Today I have a target for GBPUSD just under 1.58 for the lower trendline of the current channel:


I was looking at an SPX daily chart on Friday and on that chart the last SPX high looks as though it may have been more significant than I was expecting at the time. There are two big channels, one rising and one falling, and the upper trendlines of both were hit on the same day, with SPX making an intraday high at the top of the rising channel and then closing at the upper trendline of the declining channel. Of the two channels that makes the rising channel look stronger, and if we are to see more upside as many expect then the upper trendline of the rising channel may well be a key resistance level:

101018 SPX Daily Channel Cross

The lower trendline of the SPX rising channel from the August low held on Friday and as long as that holds, I'm expecting more upside as well. Trading has been weak for much of the night and on ES the support trendline was broken on Friday and again last night, but I'm seeing the SPX trading hours support trendline as the important one here, and while that holds the outlook is bullish. That support trendline is at 1169 SPX today:

101018 SPX 60min Rising Channel