I know I've been sounding like a broken record lately, but while the market continues to make new highs, the underlying technical picture continues to deteriorate, and I'm still of the view that we're going to see at least a sharp correction soon. Obviously POMO is still force-feeding the market with billions of dollars every day, but that was the case last January as well, and didn't stop SPX from correcting 10% from the high then. I'm doubtful about seeing a major top before QE2 finishes in June, but that's only four months ago now, and on any measure equities are looking rather overbought at the moment, and the pattern setups suggest that the risks are weighted heavily to the downside here.
On the ES daily chart the rising wedge from the July low is still looking pretty good, and I'm expecting at least a return to the lower trendline soon:
Shorter term on the hourly chart there is now another rising wedge on ES with the support trendline in the 1225.75 area at the moment:
On the NQ hourly chart there is yet another rising wedge with a lovely support trendline with five perfect touches so far. I'm expecting some decent downside action as and when it breaks and support is now in the 2380 area:
Elsewhere EURUSD is looking weak and I'm expecting to see more downside today with at least a test of the recent low coming up. I'll post an update on that tomorrow as I want to cover silver, copper and oil today. Silver looks weak with a possible double top on declining RSI. It has tried twice and failed to recapture the lower trendline of the broken rising channel. An H&S pattern may be forming:
Copper also looks weak here with another possible double-top on declining RSI. Another H&S pattern may well be forming:
Oil made a succession of marginally higher highs on declining RSI, and is now correcting. Another H&S pattern may well be forming:
Obviously there is a heavily bearish theme to what I'm seeing, but it is what it is. In my first post of December I was calling for a wave up, and I'm now expecting a wave down. Nothing goes up in a straight line, not even this, the strongest cyclical bull market in history by a wide margin. I'm expecting that we might see a bit more upside today but IMHO at least, when those support trendlines on the ES and NQ hourly charts break down, we'll be moving onto selling the rips for a while.