Friday's powerful push up has prompted quite a few calls that the recent correction is over, and that's possible, though I think it's unlikely. We saw some major trendlines break last week, and I'm expecting to see more downside before another move up. That's not to say that equities will fall straight from here though. It's been quite a while since the bears saw anything resembling a free lunch, and with opex week beginning we may chop around a while before falling further. On the ES chart (June now), broken triangle resistance was tested hard on Friday and I'm seeing a perfect declining channel that suggests we may see more upside this week:
On NQ the 2300 level was briefly recaptured on Friday and a retest of the H&S neckline would be in the 2310 area. If that breaks up then a retest of declining resistance in the 2350 – 2360 area. As with Es it is the declining resistance trendline that looks important this week and I would see a break of that as a signal that the correction was probably over:
I'm watching copper carefully for a tell on direction this week. The H&S neckline was tested on Friday and a falling wedge has formed with resistance currently at 421. A break back up through that, and then a break over 425 for an hourly close would suggest a retest of the 450 level:
I've been looking very carefully at EURUSD this morning, as I thought there was a short term break down on Friday morning, but looking at it now it seem clear that EURUSD was just establishing the lower trendline of a short term declining channel. If last week's low is taken out then a significant retracement would be more than likely, but until then I'm not seeing anything bearish on the EURUSD chart:
Only four charts this morning as I'm having some trouble accessing my stockcharts account. I'm leaning bearish overall but thinking we may well chop sideways this week.