Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on Oil Ultrashort DUG (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The most recent downleg in the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) from 31.93 to 25.73 looks like a completed bearish structure.  The fact that prices reversed sharply to the upside today after first hitting a new low suggests strongly that the DUG hit downside exhaustion at under 25.80 earlier today.

For the time being, DUG is in the midst of a run-of-the-mill recovery rally. That said, the energy sector is so overbought and vulnerable to a period of retrenchment that this run-of-the-mill recovery rally (in the inverse DUG) could easily and quickly morph into a powerful countertrend rout, as holders of long energy positions take some of their very substantial profits.

In terms of the DUG, my initial upside target zone is 27.60-28.00.


Originally published on

Ambiguous Setup (by Springheel Jack)

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I have very mixed feelings about market direction this morning. On the bear side, both SPX and NDX broke support on the rising wedges that I posted yesterday. Here's the SPX 15 min chart:

Here's the NDX 15min chart:

The futures charts are less bearish, with both ES and NQ crawling up big support trendlines overnight. Here's the NQ 60min chart showing the position there, and effectively NQ has formed a little triangle at support. There's little room to move left without breaking up or down and I'll be seeing a break of 2335 as bullish, and a break of 2325 as bearish for today:

Copper adds to the mixed picture here today, as it has most definitely broken up from a little IHS and larger rectangle overnight. The targets are marked on the chart and I'm expecting more upside, though there is some scope for a retest of the broken IHS neckline and rising channel support in the 428.5 area:

Silver reached the resistance trendline I posted yesterday and resistance is holding so far. We could see some retracement here with internal support in the 37.3 area:

I'm doubtful about seeing that resistance trendline on silver hold though, as gold made a very major resistance break yesterday. If sustained this may well signal the start of a big move up:

zstock7 suggested a long on Google if it reaches 560 to me yesterday. ztock7's timescale is probably shorter than the one I looked at on the GOOG weekly chart, but the bullish setup there is well worth a look, There's definitely scope there to chop around between 555 and 630 for a while longer, but as a longer term buy GOOG looks very attractive here:

I'm leaning short on balance today on equities, but not with much conviction. If the opening gaps are closed I'd expect them to continue downwards. If ES and NQ can hold the overnight gains however then the bias has to be up.

I've been meaning to do a dedicated post looking at EURUSD but haven't had time in the last few days. Looking at EURUSD this morning though, I see that can't wait any longer, so I'll write that next and should have that posted before the open today