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Sotheby’s and Bull Markets

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I read a very interesting article this week illustrating how bull manias were closely correlated with Sotheby's stock price (ticker symbol BID). The article quite convincingly illustrated that the late 80s takeover mania, the dot-com boom/bust, and the real estate/credit collapse all lined up nicely with auction insanity and record-high art prices.

The thrust of the article was that the present mania is located in China, where vases and paintings are fetching unheard-of bids. The implication, naturally, is that China is heading for a cliff. And, as past examples of have, Sotheby's can lose about a third of its value in one session when speculation in art ceases.

Below are the charts of the S&P (blue) and Sotheby's (black).