Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

SPY Update … (by Leaf_West)

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So far today the tape is pretty disappointing for the bulls considering that JP Morgan "manufactured" really good earnings.  When I look at the daily chart I think we are at a pivotal time right here at the $131 level … as you can see bulls really need to lift the price if the current wave count of a 5 wave bounce higher is going to pan out.

SPY_April13, 2011_Trading Day_02

As you can see on this chart, the RSI(2) indicator is oversold and is indicating that a potential daily bottom could be near.  That is also hinted at by my favorite bottom fishing indicator, the McClellan Oscillator.


SPY_April13, 2011_Trading Day_03

The Oscillator is not fully into the oversold zone as indicated by the yellow highlighted area but is right at the top of that range.  My favorite level is that -75 zone and it is currently at -52ish.

Other indicators are far from bullish so I am looking for any bounce to be short lived and will look to get short at that time.  Drawing a wave 5 target based on 5 = 1 draws a potential top at $135.72.

If you look at fibonacci time targets, the most logical spot for a top would be in 10 trading days which would put the date at April 28th as I believe there is 1 trading day holiday between now and the target date.

I would find it difficult to be short the market here …. any break lower should be marginal.  I'm starting to sound like Bernanke back in 2007/08 when he was talking about sub-prime …. I think that is my cue to finish the blog post.


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Read This Before Paying Your Taxes

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{Preamble: I am going to be driving for many hours, heading home, so I wanted to put this post up for prime-time viewing. I'll be back in the saddle late tonight with a comment-cleaner. Godspeed………}

I urge you to read the latest by Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone. Read the whole article about how two wives of rich Wall Street executives got over $220 million in risk-free, non-recourse "loans" from you and me – – the hapless, pathetic taxpayers – – to do with whatever they please. It's this kind of bullsh*t that has funded this entire rally. And I will celebrate with my fellow Slopers when this entire charade collapses in a burning heap.

When I write my checks to the IRS and the State of California, I will keep in mind the truth……..

+ The money is going to completely go to waste;

+ The governments being funded are not going to survive; 

+ Social Security and Medicare are a cruel joke; I'll never benefit from these programs one iota;

+ No government has ever done me one bit of good; the millions I've given these clowns has gone one direction – away from me – and I will never benefit. It's just cash that's been thrown away. Yeah, yeah, taxes are what you pay to live in a society. I'd be happy to pay a flat, universal, 10% tax to provide the required services. That's all it would take to keep a well-run country humming.

People pay taxes today for one reason and one reason only: because they fear the government and its power to punish. So the relationship is entirely adversarial. Were it not for that, no one would pay.

So I'm sure you'll enjoy throwing your cash away every bit as much as I do. Read the article. Please! It'll piss you off, but at least it's the truth. To ignore such information is a willful act of ignorance.

As for Obama and his change you could believe it – – what a crock of crap. He's a wimp, pure and simple. Limpy, wimpy, and with respect to backbone, far too skimpy.

My hope for the future of this once-great nation of ours…….pray for rain.


Chart on FCX (by Mike Paulenoff)

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After ending its upleg from a major corrective low at 46.20 (Mar 10) to its 58.75 high (Apr 8), Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) has relinquished 50-55% of its prior upleg gains, which is the area to look to re-establish long positions within a larger, still-intact bull trend.

My near- and intermediate-term work argues that unless and until FCX violates the 46.20 low, the larger, dominant trend remains bullish, and acute weakness should be used as a buying opportunity. I think the recent (current) plunge in FCX from 58.71 to 52.01 (-11.5%) provides such an opportunity — between 53.00 and 51.00.


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