We Need a Bounce. Right Now.

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I have, in my portfolio, done a couple of things:

(a) lightened up considerably, so that I've over half in cash right now;

(b) acquired several large long positions, and a handful of small long positions, in anticipation of a 4% to 6% bounce (depending on the index)

I usually hate the term "oversold", but having looked at a lot of individual stock charts, we really, really need a bounce right now. It doesn't have to push us to new highs; but a hearty bounce of about 5% (again, depending on the index) would make a long list of individual stocks deliciously attractive.

Here's roughly what I see in the next few weeks on some big indexes:





I profited from the May/June tumble in equities, but not nearly to the extent that I would have hoped. Should we get the kind of robust push higher that I'm anticipating, I intend to get very aggressive on the short side for what I feel could be the best bearish opportunity in 2011.