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Today has been insane on the Euro, the ES, and everything else.
I notice a rather well-defined H&S pattern on the IWM. It would require pretty much a crash, but the measured move on this pattern would take it to the mid-50s, which would pretty much give everyone a heart attack.
After yesterday's rout, I was thinking there might be a push higher last night as a partial recovery. Well, we did push higher – – 2 whole points on the ES! – – before resuming a serious tumble. As I blearily gazed at my iPad from bed this morning and saw crude oil was down 5%, I said to myself, "I bet the ES is down 26." And, sure enough, that's precisely how much it was done. Spoooooky!
Now, I've said many times lately that since I'm managing money for others (and since the end of the quarter draws near), I am being far more conservative than if it was just my own account. This is good and bad, obviously. On mornings like this, it would be nice to be short 200%. But if you think about last week – – a week when the market went up five days in a row – – being conservative has its merits as well.
I entered the day 40% short, 60% cash. I am presently VERY light, with 15% short, 84% cash, and a couple of miniscule positions in NFLX and SLV I bought today.
Equities will (hopefully) bully their way a bit higher to create better prices for shorting. I have crudely sketched out what I think might be next. I continue to beat the 1050 drum as my ultimate covering/going long goal. Until then, I remain nimble and more than a little paranoid.