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Opex Friday (by Springheel Jack)

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We've been chopping round in a range since the high last Friday and momentum is building for a breakout in one direction or the other. As I mentioned yesterday the Euro summit this weekend may well be the trigger for that breakout, and if so then I'm leaning short, as I think the Germans will be most reluctant to commit any new money.

Short term ES is back near the top of the trading range and possible bullish rectangle at the time of writing, and I'm leaning against seeing a breakout today, so immediate upside looks limited. I'm watching the short term support trendline for this move up from yesterday's lows, and if that breaks down I'd expect at least a retest of the 1203.5 support level: