I thought business ethics was a pretty useless class…but I did get one thing out of it that can apply to trading.
"In recent years psychologists have discovered a number of weaknesses and biases in how human beings make decisions. As a backdrop, recognize that cognitive weaknesses and biases we will be discussing operate primarily because people try to reduce uncertainty and simplify their world. Be aware, though, that your thinking about the facts is likely to be biased.
Research evidence suggests that you many look for the wrong ones or stop looking too soon because you think you already have all the facts you need. Being overconfident can make you fail to search for additional facts or for support for the facts you have. All of us have the tendency to look for information that will confirm our preferred answer or choice and to neglect to search for evidence that might prove us wrong.
In an attempt to overcome the confirmation trap, it's important that you consciously try to think of ways you could be wrong. Incorporate questions in your individual and group decision-making processes such as, "How could I be wrong?" What facts are still missing?" and "what facts exist that might prove me/us to be wrong?"
BEL20 Index Weekly
Black Gold index. Notice each time we hit support, we get a dip but the dip hasn't spiked and we keep retesting support which means shorts are getting hurt. If this does break at last, going long crude might be an excellent trade…If it holds again…you know what to do.
CAC40 Index Monthly.. Major support hit and held a few months ago.
CHF/USD daily. Wait for this to break down or up. If up, long. If down, short.
BEL20 Index Monthly
BEL 20 Index Weekly. Love parallelism.
Oh Mr. Dow I love how you obey fibonnaci and necklines so perfectly.
What will happen??? No idea. Let's watch.
Just playing with Andrew's pitchfork. Not a real chart.
Dow Transports breaks first resistance. Now one more to go.
Dow Transports Weekly. Looks like one big channel as noted in my previous report.
ESTX 50 PR.EUR Index Notice what looks like a failed inverse H+S pattern within a channel/bull flag.
Eurodollar. Will this crazy chart work again?
Euro Schatz.. Crazy how targets now become real resistance…
Euro holding the support.
Euro Bobl in what looks like clean resistance….that can fuel a large rally in equities.
Euro Bobl in major resistance as well…Going long equities higher chance once price breaks below green support.
Self explanatory.
Back above the trend-line from the 80s. During 2010's correction, monthly candlesticks repeating exactly what happened.
Parallel.
I should of listened to you lucky index…
Waiting for you to break above resistance to be convinced of bull side.
Oh you know, just correct down to a trendline from the 90s and keep moving higher.
Channel
Hmmmmm. Support on inverse H+S from 09 and resistance from 2007.
Tooo CLEAN. Support on inverse H+S from 2009.
Portugal holding support…Relative weakness but do not trade until it signals fully.
AEX-Index
Little messy.
Bank of Japan Index. Oh why oh did I not listen to you. Higher chance of shorts working if price hits resistance such as on July 27th and October 27th. Higher chance for bulls once prices hit support.Scalp swings until this channel gives you a full signal.
Silver holds support
Gold/Silver ratio holds resistance. and at a breaking point in a few days. Huge rally to upside or fall depending on this ratio.
USD/Silver Ratio. What is very very interesting about this chart….is how clean it is. And we did break resistance and retested the trendline on October 27th… Now just sit and watch.
Zoomed in close up of USD/Silver
The King of it all. I will feel more confident of the risk off trade when price can break above the 2 black lines. Until then I will be just sitting.
Summary: Again bonds are near resistance while most indices have held very important supports.The last trade has helped me learn more about myself and to not place dreams in trades. Also to be very swift until the risk on/off is clearly established. Get ready markets because i have now evolved to a new level and will bring everything I have to get the 100% interest back and then some.
Please visit me at http://heavenskrowinvestments.blogspot.com/if you like this type of analysis! =]
