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EURUSD Still Important (by Springheel Jack)

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There have been quite a few people saying that as EURUSD has kept falling since late November while equities have rallied, then that means that these have decoupled and the relationship is no longer important. As we saw yesterday that simply isn't the case. While it is true that the multi-week trends on them have decoupled for the moment, as is often the case, on the daily timescales a big move down or up on EURUSD will still generally be shadowed by a move on equities.

Short term I'm still using TRAN as my leading index for equities, and the obvious next move there within the ascending triangle is to rising triangle support in the 4900 area. That should roughly equate to a move to the 1225/30 area on ES, and that's where I'm expecting this move to finish as ascending triangles break up 70% of the time:

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