Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Consumers Buying Less But Paying More

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Data released today shows that consumers are buying less, but paying more, even though their personal income has risen, as shown on the three graphs below.

Consumer personal spending has been, generally, declining since it peaked in August 2011. Since "consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity, and is one of the most important gauges of economic health," it remains to be seen whether this will have any effect on the buying mindset of the equity markets that has been in play for the past couple of months.


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Tim’s Chicken Scratch Returns

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Even occasional readers are acquainted with my near-obsession over the gold miners ETF symbol GDX. I have been closely following an analog I discovered for GDX, and last week I printed it out, took pencil in hand, and clumsily scratched out what seems to be the turning points of the analog.

Below is the 2007-2008 timeframe. Please note these letters have no special meaning, except to order and identify the turning points. For the love of God, don't mistake this for some kind of attempt at Elliott Wave (cough, cough).

0130-GDXOne

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Nifty Intraday Gap-Fill

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Miners, of course, is one of the key things I watch during the day. I consider it as important – – sometimes even more important – – than the /ES. Anyway, after this morning's all-too-predictable "set the low for the day early on and then rocket higher from there" schtick, it'll be interesting to see if we do indeed shake off morning weakness or, for the first time since Abraham Lincoln was in office, actually weaken later in the day.

0130-GDX

Cautiously Bearish (by Springheel Jack)

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This retracement on equities isn't breaking any speed records so far, and probably won't. However it looks encouraging and I thinks there's a decent chance that it will reach rising support from the November low, which would be in the 1275 SPX area today. On the SPX 60min chart that would confirm the lower trendline of a rising wedge and deliver an upside target range after the bounce at wedge resistance, which would be very nice to have:

120130 SPX 60min Trendlines

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