Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
In this lifetime, 99.5% of the people talking about equities have a vested interest in assets being bid higher. Being bullish is just what everyone does. It's the realm of normal. The bastion of the masses.
Usually it works. But just keep in mind that all the articles you are seeing about how cheap stocks are is hardly an – – umm – – objective viewpoint.
Just try to find the mass media warning you about how overpriced stocks were in early 2000 or mid-2007. That's a dry hole. And, to that point, I offer the value-priced CRM:
A very annoying feature of this move up since the December 19th low is that the retracements have been shallow and, mainly in consequence, no strong support trendlines have formed. This was looking very good to be the first decent retracement this year, with a clear target trendline in the 1275-85 SPX area (depending when it was reached) combined with a pullback on EURUSD that also looks overdue.
I posted an ES chart on twitter last night that showed the ideal setup there and that was on the 15min chart below:
Further to my post of January 28th, which focused on Weekly charts, I'll take a closer look at near-term support and resistance levels on the shorter Daily timeframe for YM, ES, NQ & TF, as shown on the charts below.
Overlayed on each chart are Bollinger Bands, monthly Volume Profile POC (horizontal yellow lines), 50 sma (red), 200 sma (pink), and a Volume Profile for the one-year period (POC is red horizontal line).
Price on YM is currently trading in between its upper Bollinger Band and middle Bollinger Band, above both POCs, and above both moving averages (which are in a bullish Golden Cross formation). Using these parameters, I'd put near-term resistance at 12761, and support at, first, 12499, then 12377, and, finally, 12195 (one-year POC).
I wrote on Friday that it was the calm before the storm. But given the size and nature of the overextended / overbought market, the sell-off has not been that severe, at least not yet.
Greece will default no matter what. Question is when. One report is saying that it will happen in the early March. (http://www.examiner.com/international-trade-in-national/greece-plans-orderly-exit-of-the-eurozone ) But I think early April is more likely. Germany is tired of handing out money to Greece and they are only buying time. Question remains of contagion. Have LTRO been able to provide a cushion to the European banks from the coming shock? Next in line is Portugal and Spain. But short term trading in Wall St. is devoid of fundamentals. It is all about set up. So today SPX gaped down in the open but reduced the gap at the close. It was all about squeeze the short and keeping the bulls interested. If you look at the variances between Euro/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD, you will see that it is more of short squeeze than a rally.
I had an interesting discussion with a friend the other day when he asked me if I spent anytime on Facebook. I answered that I didn't "do" Facebook since I was too busy. (There are a host of other reasons of course, but that's another topic).