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Looks Corrective (by Springheel Jack)

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SPX has closed down for four days running now without actually moving down much. That might be a topping process of course, but this looks like a corrective move before a new wave up, which supports the contention of many EWers that this is a wave 4 retracement. That being the likely case, has this retracement already ended? Well we made a higher low yesterday, and on ES we've seen a (short term) higher high overnight, but looking at bonds and EURUSD I'm still leaning short, and SPX has not yet hit the obvious target at rising support from November, though it might not get there of course.

Short term on SPX I'm watching a new declining channel. Resistance is in the 1317.5 area so ES is going to have to drop somewhat from the current area near the overnight lows to stay below it. As long as SPX opens below there the current downtrend is intact. If that channel breaks then the path is open to a test of the highs and perhaps much higher. If the channel holds then the blue trendline within the rising channel is rising support from Monday's low, and on a break of that trendline a possible move to channel support in the 1290 SPX area opens up:

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