Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.


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Well, the market presents a mixed bag – – some major indexes look bullish (which explains why I finally relented by actually BUYING some stocks, which is probably a huge short signal in itself) and others look bearish. Let's take a look at them, in bullish/bearish order:

The NASDAQ Composite pushed above its long-term resistance line late last week, and it's been inching higher ever since. This chart is bullish, period.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow 30) likewise beat its "bin Laden high" from last May 2nd.


The Apple-powered NASDAQ 100 has been on a huge tear since Thanksgiving, and, as with the broader Composite, is straight-up bullish.


The strongest argument for the bearish case (which could be badly damaged by a single "good" headline at any moment) is the EUR/USD.


It turn, the $HUI Gold Bugs Index is poised for a beautiful fall (provided it stays under that centerline).


The Russell 2000 is right up against resistance, and this is a point where it could easily slip back to the high 700s.


The Broker/Dealer Index, $XBD, may have double-topped.


Lastly, the NYSE Summation is a screaming sell right now. Look how it's configured compared to Spring 2010, shown on the left, just before its big tumble.


So your guess is as good as mine at this point. At this moment, I'm 50% in cash, and of the 50% in equity positions, 25% is long and 75% is short. It's pretty much all about the Euro at this point, folks. We are all FOREX traders.

Back to the Hybrid Model

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Well, this morning was the final straw for me. Everything was looking ship-shape for a nice tumble today, and then ol' Ben came out and said whatever he needed to say to crash the dollar and goose equities again. The GDX, shown below on a minute bar chart, nicely expresses how a very clean breakdown was turned around 180 degrees.


I have gone long sixteen carefully-chosen equities. I am still keeping a big chunk of my portfolio in cash (a little over 50% right now), and I've got a 30/70 split between long/short. So, effectively, I'm only 20% short the market.

In any case, I cannot depend on the market going down in order to turn any sort of profit, so I've got a hybrid portfolio again. The cleanness of the NASDAQ breakout is simply too evident in order to not have a single long position.