Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Inflection Point (by Springheel Jack)

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As I mentioned yesterday the negative divergences have been building over the last few days and it appears that at the time of writing, equities are likely to gap down heavily on reports that the Greek deal is falling apart. I'm surprised by the Greek news I have to say, I was expecting it to last at least a week or two after being finalised, though against that, the deal is so obviously against the best interests of Greece, and has so much resistance to it there, that perhaps this is not such a surprising development after all.

Quite a few interesting charts this morning and I'll lead with a chart showing the daily bollinger bands on SPX, NDX and RUT. You can see how these indices have been walking the upper bollinger band upwards during this amazingly strong move, and if we are to see a retracement here, which seems likely, the obvious targets are the middle bollinger band in the 1320-5 area on SPX, with some strong support in the 1333 area, and rising channel support (marked) on NDX and RUT:


Watching Japan’s Nikkei Futures Index

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Data released tonight showed another monthly decline in CGPI y/y (change in the price of goods sold by corporations) in Japan. This level is approaching zero and is in danger of falling into negative territory, as it did in 2009.

Since it's a leading indicator of consumer inflation, this suggests that Japan's inflation is teetering on deflation…one to watch for future month's releases.

The Daily chart below of Japan's Nikkei e-mini futures index, NKD, shows that price has pushed above a major downtrend line from the July 2007 high (broken green) and has stalled today at the declining 200 sma (broken pink). Price is sitting just below 9100 (red), which represents price resistance, through which it declined on August 8th, 2011, the Monday after Standard and Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.

It will be interesting to see if near-term support holds at 8910ish or if near-term resistance holds at 9100…a solid break and hold below/above these levels on sustained volumes should set up the next move for this index.