Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Durable Goods Orders Drop to 2009 Levels

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Data released this morning shows that Durable and Core Durable Goods Orders dropped considerably…down to 2009 levels, as shown on the graphs below.

Ones to watch for possible continuing weakness as a confirmation of slowing global growth in 2012. In the short term, this may take some of the steam out of the current equity market rally, as the futures markets dropped immediately following the release. In this regard, I've outlined where short-term support lies for the four e-mini futures indices (YM, ES, NQ & TF) in my post of February 27th.

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Dow Theory Divergences (by Springheel Jack)

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The dip buyers had yet another great day yesterday as the large opening gap down was swiftly converted into a new high on SPX since the March 2009 low. That new high isn't a break with confidence of very strong 1370 area resistance yet, but if it does break with confidence then that opens up targets in the 1400 to 1440 area as you can see on the 6yr daily chart. My preferred trendline target would then be possible channel resistance in the 1410-20 area, with my reserve target being the 2008 high at 1440.24. 

There is one other thing well worth noting from the chart below. Major tops on SPX are generally preceded by a sizable counter-trend spike that sets up either a head and shoulders pattern, or a double-top or bottom. We have seen no such counter-trend spike for quite a while now, and it's unlikely that we would see a major top without one. That counter-trend spike would generally precede the high for the year by a couple of months:

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