Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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I'm traveling back home today, but for now, I've established a base camp at Virginia Beach Starbucks. The WiFi at my hotel is reminiscent of my dial-up days in 1982, and that is simply unusable. So I've taken over a huge table here………trading for me, doing crafts for my little girl next to me.
I'll be back in my regular chair tomorrow morning, and I won't piss and moan about being on the road again until late in June when I'm at Stanford Sierra Camp (land of the arrow-through-the-Apple). I'm updating my stops right now; I'm bugged that I was stopped out about a dozen positions during this morning's stupid ramp, but that's life in the jungle.
I haven't had enough time to really absorb the market to give you my take on it. I was excited at the EUR/USD action last night, but I'm afraid that's reversed. Support at 1.3 is strong, and it must be broken for the action to really kick in.
The stats for today are strong as I noted in my weekend post which you can see here. Against that the technical picture looks unambiguously bearish, and I'm expecting more downside this week, though not necessarily today. I'll repost the SPX chart I posted at the weekend below, and that is the SPX 15min chart showing the rally last week as a bear flag with a target at 1312. I was asked at the weekend where I found the stat that 47% of such breakdowns could be expected to reach target, and that was from Bulkowski's site and the relevant page is here:
Oh no! Kim Jong-un has found the comment system is down for a server upgrade! He has no one to speak to! Better slam down some Funyuns, Slim Jims, and Bacon-Lover's Specials. Don't worry; you won't be roneree for long. We'll be back soon, and better than ever.
Lots of nervous bulls and excited bears all over the TV the past couple of days … everybody needs to just chill and look at the roadmap. Everyone loves to call the top and I am as guilty as anyone. I way messed up calling the top of the 3rd Wave … as it turned out I was looking for Wave 4 when it turned out to be just a more minor/smaller wave iv of the bigger wave 3.
In the end, that early call cost me some lost profit opportunities on the long side as well as some losses on the down side on my shorts. Good risk management kept those amounts relatively small compared to my gains so far in 2012 however, so I am still pumped about the possibilities of the market going forward.
I find it much easier to calculate the support areas in a market trending higher than trying to pick the tops. Why is that? Well I have mentioned in several of my earlier blogs about trying to figure out what what chart time frame is in charge of the current wave structure.