Today is the last day of April and with it ends the annual 6 month sweet spot for equities. That doesn't mean an imminent interim top is in the offing, but it's worth noting that late April and May are periods where such interim tops are often seen. As to the strength of this 6 months up and 6 months sideways to down pattern, it's impressively strong. I posted some stats a few weeks ago showing that $10,000 invested in the Dow since 1950 November through April only would be worth some $800,000 now, and that further $10,000 invested in the Dow since 1950 May through October only would be worth some $9,500 now. That is a very strong pattern. This is an election year though and that would moderate the effect somewhat I think.
Overnight futures are weak and I'm wondering about that retest of broken resistance on ES and NQ. NQ looks particularly interesting as it's possible that there is an IHS forming there, and NQ could retest broken resistance in the 2700 area forming a right shoulder to the pattern. I've had a few comments that we may see a bigger reversal here, and that's possible, but the bigger picture for me is the broken-up double-bottoms on various indices, and the broadening descending wedge that has broken up on NQ. These are high probability patterns and unless we see real signs of weakness here my presumption is that we will see a retest of the highs at least on SPX and NDX:
