Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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I find it very difficult not to be a Bear now –
For reasons like:
- Economy / unemployment
- Overall mediocre earnings
- No QE3 is coming
- Greece default still looming
- Fiscal cliff in 2012
Yet the market continues to move higher. and as Jesse Livemore said so succinctly:
"They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side"
In this case though Price is the ultimate arbiter and price tells us the market is going higher.
Here's a three year weekly chart of S&P 500. The Andrews Fork (blue), Channel (black) and trend from the June 4 bottom (green) all point one direction – up. That it broke into the upper half of the Andrews Fork off the June lows was the final decision point for me.
Even the Euro appears to be breaking out of its consolidation pattern:
When price tells me it's time to sell – I'll listen
But for now it's the Bulls Market
Apple hit a never-before-seen-in-history high earlier today, although at the moment, it's actually (gasp!) down.
From a measured-move perspective, there are a couple of targets, depending on what you consider the "breakout" to be. Of course, there isn't a person on the planet that would be happier than Yours Truly if this breakout failed, but it hasn't failed yet, so……….here's da chart:
Well, the market just keeps surging, and at this point I don't think there are any other bears even left. Looking at the ES and NQ below, there isn't any short-term technical basis to believe that they will do anything but keep lurching higher.
The paradox in this whole thing is that the markets are counting on both Draghi and Bernanke to go hog-wild printing and accomodating and easing and doing whatever else they are supposed to do………but why would they do that if bond and equity markets are healthy and the economy seems on the mend? You can't have your cake and eat it too.
Well the big news yesterday was that EURUSD held the lower trendline of the now established rising wedge there and broke up to test the current rally highs. I have a W bottom target at 1.25. I'm not wild about the short retracement into that pattern but rising wedge resistance is now in the 1.256 area so that is supporting the W bottom target. Short term the 60min RSI is VERY overbought so we might see some consolidation or retracement: