Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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The Fed and Labor Day (by Springheel Jack)

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Ben Bernanke is speaking at Jackson Hole at 10am ET today and it's hard to predict what he might say there. The Fed minutes from last week suggest that he might announce QE3, though there doesn't seem any good reason to do that here unless it is intended either as a competitive devaluation of USD, or an intervention in the presidential election in favor of Obama. Either way it might well backfire on the Fed and I'm doubtful about QE3 being announced today. What seems more likely is some sort of extension of Twist. We'll see. 

Short term the bollinger bands on the daily SPX chart are now pinching together. This is when the distance between the upper and lower bands become unusually low and generally signals a significant move. The two previous pinches in 2012 were in March and April, and respectively signaled the moves into the April 1 and May 1 highs: