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Dow Theory Musings (by Springheel Jack)

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ES broke declining resistance overnight and we may be seeing the start of a move to test the highs, very possibly to make a double or M top for the retracement that I am expecting to see. The main alternate scenario is that the retracement low is now in and we are seeing the start of a new wave up and that's possible, but I'm leaning strongly against that at the moment. 

On the SPX 60min chart the retracement from the highs so far looks like a bull flag, which is a good reason to think that we might see a test of the highs soon. If this rising channel on SPX from the June low is going to hold, then the maximum likely within that channel would be in the 1380-5 area, with the upper bollinger band in the 1482 area today. Equally if that channel is going to hold then the main retracement has not yet got going, and I have a possible target for that at the intersection of rising channel support and the May high in the 1415 area at the start of October: