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The YM, ES, NQ & TF are in the process of backtesting the
underside of their rising channel, as shown on the Daily charts
The TF has already penetrated the channel and leads in strength
on this bounce over the past three days. The NQ closed just inside the channel
today (Thursday)…one to watch over the next few days to see if it can remain
in the channel. A failure to remain in the channel and follow through now on a
sustained and convincing bounce will cause me to assume that selling is not yet
finished in the short term.
I'm pretty pleased with how I called Apple a couple of weeks ago; I stated a target of $600, with a more-aggressive target of $585, which is where a major supporting trendline resides. We got down to $587, which is pretty close. The danger for bears, at this point, is that AAPL could truck back into the mid-600s easily, which would really goose the NASDAQ.
Early in my career as a trader and even long before that as both
an investor and stock broker, I found it very difficult to successfully
outperform the stock market with my trades/investments. When I began my
career as a full-time trader, I was largely focused on outperforming
the market by out-trading the market (via the broad index tracking
vehicles such as the futures, options, and etf’s such as the SPY, QQQ,
etc..). However, I gradually learned that it was much easier, and
profitable, to focus on only trading the best looking technical patterns
on individual stocks and sectors vs. trying to successful game the
Halloween, as long-time readers know, is my favorite holiday. It (a) requires no gift purchases; (b) doesn't demand the cooking of a fancy meal; (c) allows one to roam the neighborhood and get free candy. That all works well for me.
I am fortunate enough to live in one of the nicest neighborhoods in the Bay Area, but it butts right up against one of the worst (East Palo Alto). Because EPA basically sucks out loud, all the kids (including teenagers) cross the various bridges into Crescent Park each Halloween for a safe, lucrative trick-or-treat mission. It thus gets really, really, really crowded with a lot of (rather rude, pushy) children.
Less than a couple weeks ago I made this post about some choice retail shorts. One of them has worked out especially well, Ross Stores, which is down nearly 8% this morning. As it is approaching a major supporting trendline, I have covered the position.
I have two scenarios on AAPL here, and given the size of AAPL the way that goes is very important for the wider market. On the bullish scenario the H&S target in the 590-600 area set up a test of the 200 DMA before the next move up. AAPL tested the 200 DMA at 587 yesterday so the downside target on that scenario has now been met.
On the bearish scenario AAPL keeps falling into the 567.5 area, reversing there at a possible H&S neckline before a bounce into the 610-20 area lasting a couple of weeks. On the next neckline break below 567.5 the target would be in the 430 area, but the real target would be long term trendline support slightly over 400.