Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bearish Trendline Break on the S&P 500 Index (by SB)

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Following on the heels of yesterday's bearish trendline breaks on 6 of the 7 Major
the SPX broke and closed below its uptrend line from the October
2011 lows in today's (Thursday's) price action, as shown on the chart below.
Note that each candle represents three (3) days on this chart.

All seven Major Indices have now broken and closed below this major
uptrend line in what could be a setup for a major move down. Any backtest of and
subsequent failure to break and hold above the respective trendlines would
confirm such a scenario. Of course, we may see continued (and even accelerated)
weakness from here, which could send the related E-mini Futures Indices (YM, ES
& TF) to their respective Head & Shoulders targets of 12400, 1330, and 735, inasmuch
as their necklines have now been broken.

Major Support Break (by Springheel Jack)

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The rising wedge on SPX broke down yesterday, and with that break the possibility of a QE fuelled rally into Xmas has died in my view. We have a very significant downtrend in progress and I'm now considering the possibility that we might be in a new bear market, though none of my usual cyclical topping signals are apparent at the 1474 top. 

If we are in a new bear market we will need confirmation of that, and as it happens I have a level and target which should deliver that. First though here is the SPX daily rising wedge that has broken, also showing the close also well below the daily bollinger bands. The overnight action so far isn't encouraging for a bounce today, but I would normally expect the underside of the daily lower bollinger band to be tested on an open below it, and that should be in the 1380-2 SPX area today: