Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Weeks ago, as we approached the fiscal cliff circus, I seriously thought we would have a repeat of what happened last summer. At that time, during the "prequel" to this fiscal cliff debate, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 20% in a mere twelve trading days, virtually without a pause (it brings a tear to my eye just to think of it; our friends at ZeroHedge have put together an interesting analog between the two).
The current market seems to love the fiscal cliff. It can't get enough of all these press conferences, horse-trading, and tit-for-tat. Stocks have been thrusting higher almost without interruption since the morning of November 16th. It's just another in a long, long series of disappointments over the past four years.
So I wanted to put a few bullets into the bearish argument, just for the sake of balance. Plenty of predictions in the world of financial pundidtry go wrong (just look at my SocialTrade stack of Prediction Fails for a sampling.) I've certainly given my fair share of predictions that failed to pan out. So let's take a few swipes at the apparently ludicrous notion that the stock market is going to fall anytime in our natural lifetimes.
First chart below shows the QID scenarios posted two weeks ago
today. Prices today are basically where they were back then with QID
still bouncing off that support (S1) level. Not by chance, that level
coincides with the 3030-3040 resistance level on the $COMPQ and the
1430-1440 level on the $SPX, both of which are also being challenged
today. As back then, if these levels are taken out then the alternative
scenario then becomes the primary scenario, as prices on QID are likely
to fall to the next support level (S2).
It's a wonder that Pump 'n Dump schemes continue to try and prey on unsuspecting investors. Although it's hard to imagine this stuff is legal, the frequency of penny stock solicitations in our inbox suggests these schemes are alive and well.
Every now and then, an email slips through that really offers some nice entertainment value.
The latest solication arrived last week, on 12/12/12 of all days for ticker symbol PFNI. You would think that the Psychic Friends Network Inc., of all companies, would have an edge in forecasting future stock price appreciation. We are not making this stuff up.
Just for kicks, a few days later, let's take a look at how PFNI is faring in the markets with its stampede of new investors. The yellow arrow points to the daily price candle on 12/12/12, when the spam – er marketing – email was received.
Instead of heading to the $1 level very soon, as prognosticated by Elliott Dobbs, esteemed publisher (but obviously not a psychic), we actually crater to nearly zero the past two trading days. You just can't make this stuff up.
Our precious metals friends must be quite frustrated (I learned quickly with my posts at ZeroHedge to never question their religion; kooks are a passionate bunch). In any case, if there is any time that precious metals should be zooming to heaven, it is now. The US dollar is becoming a steaming pile of poo; trillions of dollars of new fiat money are pledged; the United States can't get its fiscal act together. Gold should be $2,500 per ounce by now.
But……..it's dropping. In fact, except for bonds, precious metals are just about the only thing dropping. The yawning divergence between the Euro and gold is breathtaking: