Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Q: What’s Wrong With Gold?!?!

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A:  Nothing.  It’s what’s wrong with peoples’ expectations and perceptions that is the problem.

Once again I’ll quote NFTRH 208 from October 14 (that edition and a sample interim update can be reviewed here:  Samples), not to be an ‘I told you so’
wise guy (I didn’t definitively tell anybody anything), but rather to
highlight how important sentiment is to this sector and also I suppose
to toot the horn a little with respect to good risk management.

Sentiment is over bullish in the precious metals
Public opinion is over bullish, Hulbert’s HGNSI is over bullish and the
CoT data show that the little and big speculators are over bullish. 
This should be cleared out before we renew our bullish enthusiasm on a
risk vs. reward basis.  Broad stock sentiment is in a better state than
in the precious metals.  It is mostly neutral.”

The over bullish sentiment in the precious metals has been ground
down to a current state of numbness at best, and full out despair at
worst.  Actually, it is the reverse; a state of despair is best for a
contrarian opportunist.


Breaking Up (by Springheel Jack)

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This has been a very impulsive move up from the low last Friday. Statistically yesterday should have been a retracement or consolidation day but instead we saw a strong move up and SPX punched through the daily upper bollinger band and closed well above it. So where does that leave us this morning?

These strong punches above the daily bollinger band are relatively rare, but they still happen fairly regularly. Since July 2011 there have been five previous instances where this happened as I have marked on the chart below. Of these five , three were close to significant highs but not one was immediately followed by a retracement of any significance. Three saw flat closes the next day with the other two closing significantly in the green. Historically there is therefore no reason to think that we saw any kind of significant high yesterday. Here's how that looks on the SPX daily chart: