ES went lower after the open yesterday, but the positive divergence on the 60min RSI only increased in force and we are now seeing the bounce from that. It is possible that the retracement low is in, but I don’t think so, I have two main scenarios here and both are assuming that a topping pattern is forming that would target the 1460 ES area, which is a decent fit with the main downside targets that I was giving yesterday. The first option is that an H&S is forming, in which case the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 1511 area. The second is that we have seen the first high of an interim double-top, and if we see a confident break over 1511 today this will be my main scenario. That would obviously assume a test of the current highs. Here’s how that looks on the ES 60min chart:
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