Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Will Gas Pains Continue?

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The natural gas ETF symbol UNG has lost an amazing 97% of its value since July of 2008. As precipitous as this drop has been, it seems to me that UNG is simply going to keep heading lower. Here's the long-term chart (which doesn't even capture the much higher prices from before):

0222-ungclose

Looking closer, you can see a "topping" (although I use the word lightly) pattern that presages a continued drop ahead.

0222-ungcloser

Bounce Options (by Springheel Jack)

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ES went lower after the open yesterday, but the positive divergence on the 60min RSI only increased in force and we are now seeing the bounce from that. It is possible that the retracement low is in, but I don’t think so, I have two main scenarios here and both are assuming that a topping pattern is forming that would target the 1460 ES area, which is a decent fit with the main downside targets that I was giving yesterday. The first option is that an H&S is forming, in which case the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 1511 area. The second is that we have seen the first high of an interim double-top, and if we see a confident break over 1511 today this will be my main scenario. That would obviously assume a test of the current highs. Here’s how that looks on the ES 60min chart:

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