Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Back on January 16th I wrote a post titled "The January Effect" simply stating that the beginning of 2013 looked absolutely identical
to the beginning of 2012. Given the
selloff over the last week I wanted to go back and see if the 2012 analog was
broken and if it was time to wave the "all clear" flag for the
bears. Bottom line, the analog is in
full effect and it looks like the bulls have another full month of smooth
sailing ahead. Again, I'd like to
present the technical analysis via charts with numbers (the numbers are
markers, not wave counts).
I had gold as my one long position for a few days, with good results, but as I mentioned in my video yesterday, I felt it was time for gold to change course and soften up again. Thus far, it has done so, and as I'm typing this, it's balanced just above 1600, threatening to drop beneath it. I've built up a fairly large short position in GLD with a tight stop at 155.61. (Edit: Ummm, the moment I typed the period to that last sentence, support failed, so……..I'm going to publish this now; the break isn't reflected in the screen shot below).
Shaking Out The Herd
In a Slope post on Tuesday ("30.2 Yield Curve And Gold"), Gary Tanashian noted that, "over the last 1.5+ years gold has shaken out the herd". Our host Tim, not one to follow herds, reminded us on Tuesday that he's currently long gold via GLD ("Target on GLD Long Approaching"); nevertheless, according to Reuters, more GLD herd members did get shaken out last month, with the gold ETF seeing a billion dollars in outflows in January. In this post, we'll look at a couple of updated hedges for GLD. First, though, a note about Bernanke's testimony yesterday, and an interesting gold chart Bespoke Investment Group posted in response to it.
SPX hasn't yet reached an important area for support or trendlines. While that doesn't necessarily mean that the low isn't in, I'll be assuming that it isn't unless we see a conviction break on SPX over the 1515/6 resistance area. I'm torn as to whether the current topping pattern on SPX is a very ugly H&S or a double-top, but either way the high yesterday was a retest of the broken pattern support level. This is important resistance today: