All things pass on the markets, however long and strong, and it’s likely that this impressive move up from November is now ending. (Editor’s Note: Thank God.) The rising channel from November hasn’t broken yet, but I think it’s going to, and that the decline yesterday signals that we are now in the topping process for the usual Spring high.
How far is this retracement likely to go? If I’m right about this being the Spring high, then there are only two main targets, and I am taking both from the weekly SPX. There have been four reversals in the last eight years from the weekly upper bollinger band when the weekly RSI 14 has reached over 70, and none of those was a bull market top. All four reached the weekly middle bollinger band, now at 1489, and three of those four reached the weekly lower bollinger band, now at 1377. That lower bollinger band may rise considerably by the time it would be reached however, and there is very strong support at the Spring high last year at 1422.38, as well as at the 200 day moving average now at 1438: (more…)