I was getting some flak yesterday for saying that I thought that the wave up from November had ended and that ES and SPX were now in a topping process. Do I know that for a fact? No. That’s why I said that this was my opinion. It is still my opinion, though as I said yesterday morning, this is generally signaled with the formation of a double-top or H&S and neither of those is clear yet. I’m also looking for confirmation with a break below the rising channel on SPX since the November low.
Should I wait for strong confirmation before giving opinions like the one I gave yesterday? It depends on your timescale. The odds that we see a decent retracement here are good, and traders can play that or just look for the buying opportunity at the low. By the time we see strong confirmation however, much of the action may be over and I may well have started looking for a tradeable low. This is just my opinion, and I’m right a lot of the time, it’s just a technical appraisal of the odds however. I have a crystal ball but I’ve never managed to get anything useful out of it. The forty bucks I paid for it on eBay was wasted I fear. 🙂
