Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

BOC Maintains Interest Rate & Lowers 2013 Forecast

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The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight interest rate at 1% today (Wednesday), cut its 2013 economic growth forecast to 1.5% from 2%, and raised its 2014 economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.7%.

As I write this at 10:30 am EST, most of the commodities in my list are down and Canada’s TSX Index is down 103.21 from yesterday’s close. Most world market indices are also down. (more…)

The Perfect Trendline

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I wrote to my Slope+ subscribers yesterday that the surge in prices was definitely NOT a “buying opportunity”, and that I would view 1570 as the target top & line in the sand for the day. Well, it went to 1570.75, so I hope you’ll allow me a tiny bit of slippage

The trendline on the minute bar chart is breathtaking (shown in red below); it followed the price points magnificently; the real question here is whether we’ll take out Wednesday’s low, or Yellen will use the force of her Old Crone Magick to reverse things. I remain cheerfully short.

Oh, and incidentally, the latest LDI reading shows the following: “yesterday [Monday] close was a once a year time to buy a real dip. I bought two more SPY 160 Calls.” – so ignore that at your peril.


Flogging A Dead Horse

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There’s little doubt in my mind that this move up from November has topped or is topping out, but the exact form that top will take isn’t yet clear. We would normally see an H&S or double-top form on SPX at this sort of high and to form a double-top would obviously require a retest of the highs. Whether we see that or not is currently also not yet clear, but the declining resistance trendline that would need to be broken to open the path to that retest is very clear, and here it is on the ES 60min chart:

130417 ES 60min Declining Resistance