Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

SPX Tests The High

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We are reaching the end of the usual spring high window. May starts tomorrow and the last three spring highs on SPX were 2nd April in 2012 (failed retest end April), 2nd May in 2011, and 26th April in 2010 (slightly exceeded high ten days previously). SPX is now retesting the mid-April high and if it’s going to turn, this is the place. If we see a sustained break over 1600 then SPX will most likely run quite a bit higher over the next few weeks but until we see that I’m leaning short with a target back at the 200 DMA on SPX: (more…)


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Back before the first world war there was a period when many bars in San Francisco gave away free food to customers. The only catch was that the food was heavily salted, with the intention that the diners would become thirsty and order plenty of drinks to wash the food down. I understand that this may be the origin of the observation that ‘there ain’t no such thing as a free lunch’, sometimes shortened to TANSTAAFL.

Any decent outcome tends to require a risk, and that’s particularly true in traded markets. There is never any certain outcome to a trade, the best that can be done is to trade when the odds favor one outcome over another. (more…)

Sometimes It’s All About Timing

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There are times one just can’t help oneself from contemplating just how ignorant (or down right stupid) people are. You might think I’m speaking about the “mis” or uninformed. Or, the “under” as well as uneducated in matters of business, finance, politics, and more. Oh contraire!

I’m speaking of the people whom fill some of the highest positions within those very industries. Once again I have been left with my jaw planted firmly on the floor by some of the revelations or “explanations” from the so-called “smart crowd.” To paraphrase an old adage: “It’s better to keep ones mouth shut and be thought a fool rather than open it as to remove all doubt.” (more…)

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