Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

On a Dime

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My goodness, the sentiment around these parts changes in a big hurry! Yesterday the bulls became mimes (although they were not dressed as one; that’s strictly my department). Today they’re crowing, smirking, and pointing.

Looking at the trend of the IWM, I really don’t see what all the high-fives are about. People want to keep buying the dips? Be my guest. I’m shorting into strength. It is completely understandable why people would think buying every dip makes sense; they’ve been deliberately conditioned to do so. Sort of like lab rats.

0502-IWM

Matryoshka Dolls

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I was concerned yesterday morning that the often very bullish first trading day of the month and the FOMC meeting might push SPX over resistance and seriously damage the spring high setup here, but it seems my concerns were unfounded. Yesterday’s decline was at the least a promising start to the significant retracement that may well be starting here.

I’ve taken the post title today from the russian nested dolls that I enjoyed playing with as a child, and which are very collectible nowadays. They came to mind as I was looking at the SPX 15min chart, where there is a series of nested double-tops in play here to take SPX back to my ideal target at the 200 DMA. The first of those broke down yesterday with a target in the 1574 area. If we get there that will trigger a second double-top targeting the 1557.5 area. If SPX gets to 1557.5 then main support below will be at the possible main double-top valley low at 1536.03, and if we see a break with confidence below there the target would be the 1475 area. The SPX 200 DMA closed at 1461 yesterday and as it is rising, that might well be in the 1475 area by the time it was reached. That is the ideal retracement scenario here and that test of the SPX 200 DMA would most likely be a good opportunity to go long for the rest of the year, though we would see how the retracement develops on the way there of course. Here’s the setup on the SPX 15min chart: (more…)