Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Start of Something Bigger?

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My post last night was riskier than normal, because daring to say anything bearish in front of Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Yellen is typically foolhardy. But I’d say we’re off to a decent start.



As busy as I am, I normally get to read maybe 5% of the comments, but moments ago, I happened to notice the following was the highest-rated comment from last night:

I’ve lurked about this bearish site for a couple of years but I mostly trade long because, after all, the trend really is your friend. I am not a complete dope and I understand that there will a change for the worse one day, possibly much worse. There could be much pain for many people, not just for long stock market investors, but for many innocents in the forms of unemployment, hunger, war etc. What I can never understand here is why such pain would “put a twinkle” in anyone’s eye?

Long-time readers know that as malicious as my quote might have sounded, my sentiment emanates from a heartfelt desire to see an honest and rational market, not some wrong-headed lust for the masses to suffer. (As for Blankfein, Dimon, Yellen, and Bernanke – – – bring the suffering on; show them no mercy). But the twinkle in my eye has far more to do with sensible markets than the beleaguered public. I only wish the aforementioned public would turn off their televisions, grab a straight-edge, and show Blankfein how well it works.

At the moment, I’m a bit blogged-out, but maybe I’ll catch a second wind later (or maybe you won’t see a new post until Springheel Jack in the morning). Today was a good day, to be sure, and I can only express my delight and relief that FOMC is done with. We shall resume the attack on the ‘morrow.

Sometimes Good Fortune Pays

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Yesterday was one of those days.

We had network issues, so I spent most of my day working offline. I haven’t done that in a long, long time. As frustrating as the outage was, it saved me a little bit of cash because I was ready to fire off a few directional trades. After looking back at the SPY chart I would have most likely entered into a trade around $176.80 so I saved myself roughly $0.40 or about $0.15 to $0.20 per option contract. Hopefully, my good fortune continues today when I attack this market with a few short-term trades. (more…)

FOMC Trick or Treat

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Three weeks ago today, near the low for the last move down, I was writing that the weekly S2 pivot was decent support, and that while ES was then below it, there was a good chance that it would close the week back above it. Today ES has broken above the R2 pivot at 1769, and given that the weekly upper bollinger band on SPX is in the same area, there is a very good chance that ES will close the week back below it. What I’m also seeing this morning on ES is that there is confirmed negative divergence on the 60min RSI, the confirmation being that RSI has dropped below the low made after the first RSI peak. Will ES decline from here this week? FOMC may determine that of course but in normal circumstances that would be likely. ES 60min chart: (more…)