Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Sometimes Good Fortune Pays

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Yesterday was one of those days.

We had network issues, so I spent most of my day working offline. I haven’t done that in a long, long time. As frustrating as the outage was, it saved me a little bit of cash because I was ready to fire off a few directional trades. After looking back at the SPY chart I would have most likely entered into a trade around $176.80 so I saved myself roughly $0.40 or about $0.15 to $0.20 per option contract. Hopefully, my good fortune continues today when I attack this market with a few short-term trades. (more…)

FOMC Trick or Treat

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Three weeks ago today, near the low for the last move down, I was writing that the weekly S2 pivot was decent support, and that while ES was then below it, there was a good chance that it would close the week back above it. Today ES has broken above the R2 pivot at 1769, and given that the weekly upper bollinger band on SPX is in the same area, there is a very good chance that ES will close the week back below it. What I’m also seeing this morning on ES is that there is confirmed negative divergence on the 60min RSI, the confirmation being that RSI has dropped below the low made after the first RSI peak. Will ES decline from here this week? FOMC may determine that of course but in normal circumstances that would be likely. ES 60min chart: (more…)

The Market Mr. Yellen Will Inherit

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I am considered by many to me a permabear. That’s an understandable assessment. I feel the same way about myself.

But the analytical Tim is somewhat different than the dogmatic Tim. The analytical Tim was on full display in a best-of-Slope post I did over three months ago about the “Runaway Russell”.(Slope+ premium members got a deeper dive, along with a specific numeric prediction). (more…)