Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Double-Tops Abound

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Last Wednesday I posted an SPX chart looking for a retest of the highs and sketched in very light grey a scenario where SPX made the second high of a double-top which would then break down with a target near the 61.8% fib retracement at 1799. The second high of that double-top peaked yesterday and it broke down with conviction with a target at 1798, and a possible alternate target at 1804 (due to the second high being six points lower). SPX 60min chart: (more…)

ES Quantitative Analysis

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All right, a couple of notes before we begin the ES analysis for today:

1) someone pointed out that a Stop Loss at 1734 is very far away, adding that no one sane in his mind would take 100 points in his face like that. First of all, the Stop Loss must be put in context: that number, 1734, represents the END OF THE RANGE that we consider “tradable” for LONG trades. This means that we have a preferred LONG trading price range where we think Swing Trading techniques can be successful. If the price goes below that level it means this is no more Swing Trading but Nose Diving/Crash, etc., something else, so you better get out quick (Stop Loss at 1734). It does not mean you enter a trade at 1813 and exit at 1734, we agree that does not sound very smart and in fact we have NEVER suggested to do so. There would be some more comments to add in regard to the fact that in some circumstances, and with certain deep pockets, one may actually be able to trade the entire range, from 1813 to 1734 and make a profit, but this goes out of our scope here, so we will not get into that. (more…)