Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

High Expected Return Watch List

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Earlier this month, when we introduced Portfolio Armor‘s new portfolio construction tool on Slope (“A New Approach To Portfolio Construction”), I mentioned that the tool uses an analysis of historical returns as well as option market sentiment to calculate expected returns for the approximately 3,000 securities in its universe. This week, one of those expected return calculations turned out to be eerily prescient, so I thought I’d pull back the curtain a bit on it. (more…)

Gold and Fibonaccis

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I haven’t been trading gold or miners recently. Precious metals certainly seem to have made some kind of bottom; whether it is “the” bottom remains to be seen, but getting beneath the levels set at the end of 2013 would take quite a strong punch.

Today I drew the Fibonacci retracements spanning from GLD’s high (September 6, 2011) to its recent low (December 31, 2013). What’s fascinating is that even those these anchor points are ex post facto, the price of GLD seems to have an awful lot of respect for these retracement levels as support and resistance. (more…)

Ten Green Candles

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ES closed green again yesterday, delivering a second run of ten consecutive green candle closes since 2000. Looking at the overnight action I doubt that we will see a third record-equalling eleventh green candle today. At the moment ES is trying to hold 1830 and we might still see a test of the 1851 SPX high if it can hold. If 1830 breaks then the double-top target is in the 1822.50 area. ES 60min chart: (more…)

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