Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Unlike President Obama’s multiple “red lines” (which are evidentally all-too-easy to cross), the lines being laid down by the market have staying power. Markets surged to lifetime highs on March 4th. They had another shot to do so on the 21st, but they failed by falling short. Since then, we have crossed below the cyan trendline which goes back over fourteen years. April is going to be a good month for the bears.
I was asked yesterday what odds I would give to the Spring high already being in and a retracement towards a retest of the 1550-1600 area having already started. I replied that if this was a bullish setup I’d be giving odds and 90% +, but as it was a bearish setup I’d be thinking 70/30. That may be too cautious, but the bears have been having significant performance issues in recent years.
On the SPX daily chart the opening spike down tested the lower bollinger band, and made the low for the day there. At the time of writing ES has rallied about 12 handles from there and the obvious resistance levels are in the 1848 and 1856 areas on ES (1855 and 1863 on SPX). The obvious target for a strong bounce off the daily lower bollinger band is of course the middle bollinger band, and that is currently at 1863 SPX, the higher of those two resistance levels. SPX daily chart: (more…)