Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Spread Between Brent Crude Oil & WTIC Light Crude Oil

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I last mentioned the spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTIC Light Crude Oil in this post on May 5th, 2013. At that time, price had narrowed considerably between these two.

The following 3-Year Daily ratio chart of BRENT:WTIC shows that the spread has been widening recently in favour of Brent. With the positive cross of the RSI above 50 and the positive cross-overs of the MACD and Stochastics, it would appear that this spread may continue to widen…if price can break and hold above the 50 and, possibly, 200 MAs.



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I received a flood of positive comments and emails about my Change in Tone post yesterday. I also received a handful of “What? How could you?!?! You traitor!” type remarks. So I thought I’d clarify my point of view.

Apparently some folks read my post as stating, “Hi, everyone. I am never going to short anything 0620-arnoldever again in my life, and I’m just going to be a permanbull from now on.”

The message was really more along the lines of, “I’ve had enough of this permabear schtick, and you can expect to see a greater balance between bullish and bearish ideas here on the blog. I am, after all, a chartist.” See? A change in tone.

For the record, when I wrote my post yesterday, I had 81 (count ’em, 81) shorts and 0 (count ’em, zero) longs. And the only thing that has changed since yesterday is that I have 3 more shorts. I am more disposed toward buying stocks, yes, but at these levels, ummm, I’m going to try to be a little patient except for slam-dunk patterns.

One thing that really helped me into the “Hey, OWNING stuff is pretty cool” mode is bullion. A few weeks back, pretty much at the perfect time, I bought a truckload of gold and silver bullion. It has, to date, done very well. And I confess, it’s a warm-and-fuzzy feeling seeing those prices climb, knowing I’ve got a small hillock of the stuff.

So my main point was that folks can expect less of a tilted stance and less dogma. Nothing more. Oh, and as my Slope+ readers know, I have been a “bull” for a while in one particular sector, and it has been a jackpot (which makes me feel very good, since my beloved Plus users are actually paying for my opinion). Thanks, everyone…….

The Sheep Look Up

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I’ve been hearing a lot this week, and particularly with the break up yesterday, that we have moved beyond an area where TA can help forecast the markets. I have to say the evidence for that right here looks pretty thin. I said in my post last Friday that SPX might well retest the highs unless the 50 hour MA held as resistance. In my post yesterday morning I noted that SPX had broken back over the 50 hour MA and showed a rising wedge from the 1925 low, giving my reasons why I thought that wedge might well break up with a target in the 1960-5 area rather than break down. Yesterday that wedge broke up with a target in the 1965 area, and that joins the 1965 target that I gave almost a year ago in my weekend post on on 30th June 2013 after the break up from a much larger rising wedge. So far at least we have not demonstrably moved out of predictable territory. (more…)