Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Technical Tools Tale (The End)

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Here’s the third installment of my little story, the first and second of which are here and here, respectively. As before, the term “X” is used in place for a certain real name.

Our little company was now under new management. In the months to follow, our respective jobs remained more or less the same, but the interactions within the office grew both peculiar and contrived.

For example, in the arsenal of psychology tools our new owner “X” pulled from his new age bag of tricks, there was something he called “pacing”. During these pacing exercises, everyone in the company would stop whatever they were doing (to the chagrin, I imagine, of customers calling in to place orders or get technical support) and pair off, two by two, and face one another while sitting in chairs. One person would speak, and the other person would “pace” them – – that is to say, the silent person would mimic the body language of the other party. This was not to be done in a mocking way, but instead was assumed to build empathy with the other person. (more…)

Degrading Momentum

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The world of high-yield corporate bonds has been obediently charging higher for years, right along with equities. However, if you scrutinize what’s been happening recently, you’ll realize that momentum is definitely waning. Look at the three trendlines I’ve drawn below; they’ve all been violated (the red one extending back to the early 2009 bottom). If nothing else, it seems the glory days for gains in the world of stuff like HYG and JNK are behind us for a while.


Some Candles Are Just Too Rare

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That was a very rare daily candle yesterday, not visible on SPX, because for some reason the SPX data feed doesn’t seem to notice gaps much for reasons I have tried and failed to establish in the past, but on SPY, which is what I use when I want a true picture of the daily candle. The candle for the day was a strong gap down through the daily middle band, with a recovery back above it, and I was only able to find three comparable candles going back to 1991.

In those three instances two traded intraday below the middle band the next day and both closed red for the day, with one closing significantly below the middle band. The other example rose modestly the next day. What was interesting though was what happened afterwards, which was that in all three instances SPX then rose to touch the upper band on SPY (a little short in two instances on SPX), and then immediately retraced back to the lower band. That was very interesting though a total sample size of three is very small and yesterday’s gap under the middle band was the deepest of them all so even those three aren’t necessarily fully comparable. . (more…)