Crude oil, viewed by way of the fund symbol USO, nailed its technical target 33.68 (marked with the lower horizontal red line in the chart here). It seems stalled there, but it’s not exactly bouncing; given the break beneath the ascending blue trendline, perhaps crude oil is in for some more serious damage. My short idea, XOP, offered up several weeks ago, has done great (as has the more aggressive version, ERX), but those still have plenty of room to fall – – -so perhaps, in spite of all the insanity in the Middle East, crude oil is going to keep weakening.
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At the end of a band ride the targets for any move away from that band are firstly the middle band, but also any important MAs that lie between the two. The middle band is at 1983, in my ideal target zone for this rally, but between the bands are the 100 DMA at 1960, and the 50 DMA at 1974. The high so far is a fail at the 50 DMA and it’s possible that was the rally high. If so we will most likely find out today. SPX daily chart: