Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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And Now For Something Completely Different

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I was asked yesterday morning why the tone of yesterday’s post was so bearish, and the reason was of course that I thought the odds favored a significant move down. We saw that move and both the SPX 200 DMA and main double top support broke down with a lot of conviction. The double-top target is the 1789 area and I’m expecting SPX should hit that target within a few days. The trend on the market has changed for the moment and while we will get some rallies, I won’t start looking seriously for a low here until we reach that 1789 target area. I’m not expecting to be waiting long for that.

I’ve been looking at my RSI 5 / NYMO daily buy signal that triggered at the 1970 high with some concern here, as it might have delivered a stronger rally than I’m expecting, but it failed at the close yesterday, so it is no longer a concern. That was the first outright fail from the signal trigger since the start of 2007, but there’s a first time for everything. It’s not unprecedented. Looking back further I found another fail in a strong downtrend in 2002. The timing of this signal was particularly annoying, but hey, that’s the market we trade in. SPX daily chart: (more…)