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1920 SPX Rally Target In Sight

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Last Wednesday night, after some seriously wild action had settled down a bit after hours, I made some educated guesses in my trading room about what ES/SPX might do over the next few days. Some of these I also talked about on twitter then and the next morning, and reviewed the status of all of these on Friday morning. They were as follows from ES 1842-3 at the time:

1. ES was making the second low of a double bottom targeting the 1855 area (topped at 1857)
2. That move should make the second high of a double top (target 1821 area) (bottomed 1815)
3. An (Thursday) AM low would be made on SPX in the 1830-40 ES area (low was 1828)
4. SPX would then break up from an IHS with a target in the 1920 area (to be hit today?)
5. That 1920 area would be reached on Thurs/Fri this (now last) week (rally too slow)
6. SPX would reverse back down hard to hit the 1789 double top target (pending)
7. That double-top target would be hit Tues – Thurs next (now this) week (ambitious)

Janet Yellen wasn’t as much help as I had hoped on Friday morning and while it seems very likely that my 1920 SPX will be hit in trading hours today, this is obvious a solid two days later than I had expected. Does that make the outlook here more bullish? Possibly yes. I’m looking for a test of my 1920 SPX target in trading hours this morning and then I would like to see a very hard rejection from that high. We’ll see whether I get that. (more…)