Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
A Fractured Misconception
Amongst the permabulls of our race – – which is basically everybody at this point – – there’s this empty-headed notion that as crude oil prices plunge (an event I predicted repeatedly here on Slope), cheaper gas would make the economy boom even more. I’ve read this sentiment so often that I just had to same something – – in case you think plunging oil doesn’t indicate a fundamentally worsening economy, but instead is just a “peace dividend” to the unwashed masses so they can buy more crap from China, consider what crude oil did starting in June 2008 and what followed………
The Day After Thanksgiving
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, and that none of you were long enough oil-related instruments for OPEC to upset your digestion. We are seeing a weak looking open today and in part that may be due to the break below $70 on oil, though on all three trading days so far this week we had a significant move down either from or before the open, which then wasn’t followed through. .
I’m skeptical about the prospects for the bears today. This will be a holiday half-session on low volume, and the stats for the last trading day in November are impressively bullish, with SPX closing up 6 of the last 7.
The close on Wednesday delivered another close above the 5 DMA, and another new lifetime high on SPX of 29 consecutive closes above the 5 day MA. If the bullish historical stats for today deliver then we will see SPX make another lifetime high at 30 above today. It wouldn’t take a big move to end that run here though, as the 5 DMA is now at 2065. SPX daily 5 DMA chart: (more…)
Time To Get Long?
(Editor’s Note – just to be clear, the post below is written by TNRevolution, not me!- Tim)
No, that wasn’t a typo.
If you frequent the comments section on the Slope, you’ve undoubtedly noticed a change in my viewpoint on the markets over the past couple weeks. Let’s take a look at why.
Starting with the Russell 2000, the market has seen multiple genuine opportunities to see significant weakness this year. They have all failed to this point. I have circled each opportunity on the chart below. Beginning with the drop in January of this year, the Russell broke down out of it’s rising wedge off the November 2012 low. This was a well formed wedge. We saw an initial drop down to the 1080 level, followed by a move higher to new highs and a backtest of the wedge. After the backtest, the Russell began to fall away again, leading to another good bearish opportunity. The decline again stalled at the 1080 level, moving higher, thereby making 1080 a key support level on the Russell. The final good bearish opportunity came in September of this year, as the Russell broke down out of its larger rising wedge off the 2009 low. This breakdown was also followed by a breakdown of the 1080 level. Prices stayed below 1080 for over a week, reaching a low of 1040. However, prices began to move higher, and retook the 1080 level, continuing higher since. (more…)