Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

It Can Always Be Different This Time (But Usually Isn’t)

By -

I wasn’t looking for the strong rally yesterday but I had mentioned in my posts on both Monday and Tuesday the possibility that the current high might be retested to make the second high of a double top, and that is what we should be looking at here. A lot of people were assuming that the retrace was complete yesterday evening but it’s too early to say that, and the historical odds are still stacked against that outcome here.

The reason for that is in part the SPX daily sell signal that triggered on Monday, which has an impressive track record, but is even more so on the historical performance after the break of the five 20+ day runs above the 5 DMA since 1961, and after a close look this morning the stats for these are below: (more…)